UvT-econometricians: 100 meter sprint in 9.4 seconds
Can a human being run the 100 meter print in 9.4 seconds? The current world record is set at 9,58 seconds (by Usain Bolt). But it is possible to run even faster, Tilburg scientist say. A record of 9.36 seconds is possible.
Back in the summer of 2009, Tilburg econometricians John Einmahl and Sander Smeets used extreme-value theory to calculate that the ultimate record for men was 9.51 seconds, but now the researchers have shifted that down to 9.36 seconds.
The econometricians analyzed the personal best times of the world’s 1034 best male athletes between January 1991 and July 2012. Each athlete was only included in the analysis once. Times from before 1991 were not included because of the inadequate doping controls in place at that time. The times of the men ranged from 9.58 to 10.30 seconds.
Extreme value theory is a branch of statistics that answers questions about extreme events (which are, by definition, unusual) on the basis of information about less extreme events. The theory is widely used in finance and insurance to estimate risks of extreme damage caused by storms, earthquakes or breached flood defenses.
.
